Cardiff City v Sunderland
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Cardiff City lost to Sunderland 0–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Joe Ralls for 1+ fouls committed (87%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Aaron Ramsey for 1+ fouls committed (77%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Ralls | fouls committed | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ollie Tanner | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Yakou Méïté | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Chris Willock | fouls drawn | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jack Clarke | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jack Clarke | fouls drawn | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| Aaron Ramsey | fouls committed | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Eliezer Mayenda | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 4 | ✓ |
| Jobe Bellingham | fouls drawn | 1+ | 75% | 2 | ✓ |
| Callum Robinson | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Yakou Méïté | shots total | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Patrick Roberts | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Calum Chambers | fouls committed | 1+ | 72% | 2 | ✓ |
| Perry Ng | fouls committed | 1+ | 70% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Fouls drawn · Shots total
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 47% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 43% | 2 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 36% | 3 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Sunderland 2–1 Cardiff City Mar 2025
- Cardiff City 0–2 Sunderland Mar 2024
- Sunderland 0–1 Cardiff City Sep 2023
- Cardiff City 0–1 Sunderland Apr 2023
- Sunderland 0–1 Cardiff City Nov 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Cardiff City v Sunderland?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Cardiff City v Sunderland?
The most confident call it got wrong was Aaron Ramsey at 77% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.