Coventry City v Millwall
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Coventry City beat Millwall 2–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Billy Mitchell for 1+ tackles (95%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Romain Esse for 1+ tackles (91%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Mitchell | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Haji Wright | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Brandon Thomas-Asante | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Romain Esse | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Femi Azeez | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 3 | ✓ |
| Mihailo Ivanović | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 3 | ✓ |
| Victor Torp | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jack Rudoni | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ephron Mason-Clark | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ephron Mason-Clark | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Romain Esse | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tatsuhiro Sakamoto | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Josh Eccles | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Zak Sturge | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 61% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 61% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 20% | 3 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Millwall 0–4 Coventry City Oct 2025
- Millwall 2–1 Coventry City Aug 2025
- Coventry City 0–0 Millwall Dec 2024
- Millwall 0–1 Coventry City Dec 2024
- Coventry City 2–1 Millwall Feb 2024
- Millwall 0–3 Coventry City Nov 2023
- Coventry City 1–0 Millwall Feb 2023
- Millwall 3–2 Coventry City Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Coventry City v Millwall?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Coventry City v Millwall?
The most confident call it got wrong was Romain Esse at 91% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.