Coventry City v Preston North End
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Coventry City beat Preston North End 3–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Ellis Simms for 1+ shots total (84%, had 6). Its clearest miss: Frank Onyeka for 1+ fouls drawn (80%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ellis Simms | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 6 | ✓ |
| Frank Onyeka | fouls drawn | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
| Brandon Thomas-Asante | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 3 | ✓ |
| Romain Esse | fouls drawn | 1+ | 79% | 2 | ✓ |
| Daniel Jebbison | fouls committed | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tatsuhiro Sakamoto | fouls drawn | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Victor Torp | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ephron Mason-Clark | fouls drawn | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ephron Mason-Clark | fouls committed | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ali McCann | fouls committed | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Josh Eccles | fouls drawn | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Alfie Devine | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Frank Onyeka | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ephron Mason-Clark | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls drawn · Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 59% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 51% | No | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 28% | 0 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Preston North End 1–1 Coventry City Dec 2025
- Coventry City 2–1 Preston North End Feb 2025
- Preston North End 1–0 Coventry City Oct 2024
- Coventry City 0–3 Preston North End Feb 2024
- Preston North End 3–2 Coventry City Nov 2023
- Preston North End 0–0 Coventry City Feb 2023
- Coventry City 0–1 Preston North End Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Coventry City v Preston North End?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Coventry City v Preston North End?
The most confident call it got wrong was Frank Onyeka at 80% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.