Coventry City v West Brom
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Coventry City beat West Brom 3–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Ellis Simms for 1+ shots total (82%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Karlan Grant for 1+ shots total (76%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ellis Simms | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 3 | ✓ |
| Mikey Johnston | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ephron Mason-Clark | fouls committed | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| Victor Torp | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 5 | ✓ |
| Jayson Molumby | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
| Karlan Grant | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Aune Selland Heggebø | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 2 | ✓ |
| Isaac Price | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ephron Mason-Clark | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 2 | ✓ |
| Josh Eccles | fouls drawn | 1+ | 73% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ousmane Diakité | fouls drawn | 1+ | 71% | 0 | ✗ |
| Aune Selland Heggebø | shots total | 1+ | 71% | 4 | ✓ |
| Samuel Iling Junior | fouls committed | 1+ | 71% | 0 | ✗ |
| Victor Torp | fouls committed | 1+ | 70% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls committed · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 51% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 48% | 5 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 19% | 5 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- West Brom 0–2 Coventry City Feb 2026
- Coventry City 2–0 West Brom Apr 2025
- West Brom 2–0 Coventry City Dec 2024
- West Brom 2–1 Coventry City Mar 2024
- Coventry City 0–2 West Brom Oct 2023
- West Brom 1–0 Coventry City Feb 2023
- Coventry City 1–0 West Brom Dec 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Coventry City v West Brom?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Coventry City v West Brom?
The most confident call it got wrong was Karlan Grant at 76% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.