Derby County v Plymouth Argyle
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Derby County drew with Plymouth Argyle 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Matthew Sorinola for 1+ fouls drawn (86%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Marcus Harness for 1+ fouls committed (84%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
10 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record →
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Sorinola | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Marcus Harness | fouls committed | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Morgan Whittaker | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ebou Adams | fouls committed | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Darko Gyabi | fouls drawn | 1+ | 81% | 2 | ✓ |
| Nathaniel Méndez-Laing | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 3 | ✓ |
| Morgan Whittaker | fouls drawn | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jerry Yates | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 2 | ✓ |
| Frederick Issaka | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Bali Mumba | fouls drawn | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mustapha Bundu | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ebou Adams | shots total | 1+ | 71% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kayden Jackson | shots total | 1+ | 71% | 3 | ✓ |
| Mustapha Bundu | fouls drawn | 1+ | 71% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn · Fouls committed · Shots total
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 43% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 39% | 2 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 38% | 5 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Plymouth Argyle 2–3 Derby County Mar 2025
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Derby County v Plymouth Argyle?
8 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Derby County v Plymouth Argyle?
The most confident call it got wrong was Marcus Harness at 84% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.