Leicester v Birmingham City
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Leicester beat Birmingham City 2–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Jordan Ayew for 1+ fouls drawn (87%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Keshi Anderson for 1+ fouls drawn (81%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Ayew | fouls drawn | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Abdul Fatawu Issahaku | fouls drawn | 1+ | 83% | 4 | ✓ |
| Patson Daka | fouls committed | 1+ | 81% | 3 | ✓ |
| Keshi Anderson | fouls drawn | 1+ | 81% | 0 | ✗ |
| Patson Daka | fouls drawn | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Abdul Fatawu Issahaku | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ethan Laird | fouls drawn | 1+ | 76% | 6 | ✓ |
| Jordan Ayew | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Demarai Gray | fouls drawn | 1+ | 75% | 0 | ✗ |
| Abdul Fatawu Issahaku | fouls committed | 1+ | 73% | 2 | ✓ |
| Patson Daka | shots total | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Demarai Gray | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kyogo Furuhashi | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 2 | ✓ |
| Luke Thomas | fouls committed | 1+ | 71% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn · Fouls committed · Shots total
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 53% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 52% | 2 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 36% | 6 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Birmingham City 2–1 Leicester Feb 2026
- Leicester 2–1 Birmingham City Apr 2024
- Birmingham City 2–3 Leicester Dec 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Leicester v Birmingham City?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Leicester v Birmingham City?
The most confident call it got wrong was Keshi Anderson at 81% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.