Leicester v Preston North End
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Leicester drew with Preston North End 2–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Ricardo Pereira for 1+ tackles (95%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Stephy Mavididi for 1+ shots total (89%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
13 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Moran | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Pol Valentín | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ricardo Pereira | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Stephy Mavididi | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Abdul Fatawu Issahaku | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 6 | ✓ |
| Patson Daka | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 4 | ✓ |
| Alfie Devine | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Abdul Fatawu Issahaku | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 5 | ✓ |
| Andrew Hughes | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 4 | ✓ |
| Brad Potts | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lewis Dobbin | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Divine Mukasa | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 7 | ✓ |
| Luke Thomas | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 5 | ✓ |
| Ben Whiteman | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 4 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 61% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 54% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 18% | 5 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Preston North End 2–1 Leicester Aug 2025
- Preston North End 0–3 Leicester Apr 2024
- Leicester 3–0 Preston North End Oct 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Leicester v Preston North End?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Leicester v Preston North End?
The most confident call it got wrong was Stephy Mavididi at 89% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.