Luton v Blackburn Rovers
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Luton lost to Blackburn Rovers 0–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Lewis Travis for 1+ tackles (95%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Adam Forshaw for 1+ tackles (86%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sondre Tronstad | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ryan Hedges | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Lewis Travis | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Millenic Alli | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 4 | ✓ |
| Todd Cantwell | tackles | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Yuki Ohashi | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Adam Forshaw | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tahith Chong | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Lewis Travis | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Josh Bowler | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Todd Cantwell | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Liam Walsh | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Yuri Ribeiro | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tyrhys Dolan | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 49% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 42% | 1 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 21% | 6 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Blackburn Rovers 2–0 Luton Dec 2024
- Blackburn Rovers 1–1 Luton May 2023
- Luton 2–0 Blackburn Rovers Sep 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Luton v Blackburn Rovers?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Luton v Blackburn Rovers?
The most confident call it got wrong was Adam Forshaw at 86% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.