Luton v Burnley
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Luton lost to Burnley 1–4, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Josh Brownhill for 1+ tackles (95%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Josh Cullen for 1+ tackles (86%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Brownhill | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lucas Pires | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Vitinho | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 7 | ✓ |
| Josh Cullen | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Josh Cullen | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Anass Zaroury | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tahith Chong | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 4 | ✓ |
| Maxime Estève | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Wilson Odobert | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 3 | ✓ |
| Anass Zaroury | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Chiedozie Ogbene | fouls drawn | 1+ | 81% | 3 | ✓ |
| Dara O'Shea | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
| Teden Mengi | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Alfie Doughty | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 5 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Fouls drawn Shots total
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 43% | 5 cards | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 13% | 5 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 13% | Yes | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards Match goals
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Burnley 4–0 Luton Mar 2025
- Burnley 1–1 Luton Jan 2024
- Luton 1–2 Burnley Oct 2023
- Luton 0–1 Burnley Feb 2023
- Burnley 1–1 Luton Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Luton v Burnley?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Luton v Burnley?
The most confident call it got wrong was Josh Cullen at 86% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.