Luton v Derby County
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Luton beat Derby County 2–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Jacob Brown for 1+ fouls drawn (85%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Cauley Woodrow for 1+ shots total (78%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Brown | fouls drawn | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Tahith Chong | fouls drawn | 1+ | 81% | 2 | ✓ |
| Carlton Morris | fouls drawn | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ebou Adams | fouls committed | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Cauley Woodrow | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Elijah Adebayo | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ebou Adams | fouls drawn | 1+ | 77% | 4 | ✓ |
| Victor Moses | fouls drawn | 1+ | 73% | 3 | ✓ |
| Elijah Adebayo | fouls committed | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Carlton Morris | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 5 | ✓ |
| Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu | fouls drawn | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jacob Brown | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jordan Clark | fouls drawn | 1+ | 71% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jerry Yates | fouls committed | 1+ | 70% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn · Fouls committed · Shots total
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 43% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 35% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 26% | 4 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Derby County 0–1 Luton Apr 2025
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Luton v Derby County?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Luton v Derby County?
The most confident call it got wrong was Cauley Woodrow at 78% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.