Derby County v Luton
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Derby County lost to Luton 0–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Ebou Adams for 1+ fouls drawn (83%, had 5). Its clearest miss: Carlton Morris for 1+ fouls drawn (70%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebou Adams | fouls drawn | 1+ | 83% | 5 | ✓ |
| Ebou Adams | fouls committed | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Thelo Aasgaard | fouls drawn | 1+ | 80% | 2 | ✓ |
| Marcus Harness | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 3 | ✓ |
| Millenic Alli | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Carlton Morris | fouls committed | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Isaiah Jones | fouls drawn | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Thelo Aasgaard | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Carlton Morris | fouls drawn | 1+ | 70% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kayden Jackson | shots total | 1+ | 68% | 0 | ✗ |
| Carlton Morris | shots total | 1+ | 68% | 0 | ✗ |
| Isaiah Jones | fouls committed | 1+ | 68% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kayden Jackson | fouls drawn | 1+ | 68% | 2 | ✓ |
| Amari'i Bell | fouls drawn | 1+ | 66% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn · Fouls committed · Shots total
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 40% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 33% | 1 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 26% | 4 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Luton 2–1 Derby County Dec 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Derby County v Luton?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Derby County v Luton?
The most confident call it got wrong was Carlton Morris at 70% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.