Luton v Norwich
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Luton lost to Norwich 0–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Kenny McLean for 1+ fouls drawn (80%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Borja Sainz for 1+ fouls drawn (84%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
13 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record →
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borja Sainz | fouls drawn | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kenny McLean | fouls drawn | 1+ | 80% | 4 | ✓ |
| Ashley Barnes | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
| Borja Sainz | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| Elijah Adebayo | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 4 | ✓ |
| Tom Krauß | fouls committed | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Emiliano Marcondes | fouls drawn | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Marvelous Nakamba | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Marcelino Núñez | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
| Tahith Chong | fouls drawn | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
| Anis Ben Slimane | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 0 | ✗ |
| Carlton Morris | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Elijah Adebayo | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Carlton Morris | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn · Fouls committed · Shots total
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 52% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 46% | 1 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 42% | 2 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Norwich 4–2 Luton Nov 2024
- Luton 2–1 Norwich Dec 2022
- Norwich 0–1 Luton Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Luton v Norwich?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Luton v Norwich?
The most confident call it got wrong was Borja Sainz at 84% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.