Luton v Watford
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Luton beat Watford 3–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being Tahith Chong for 1+ fouls drawn (85%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Vakoun Issouf Bayo for 1+ shots total (76%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tahith Chong | fouls drawn | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Elijah Adebayo | fouls committed | 1+ | 82% | 4 | ✓ |
| Carlton Morris | fouls drawn | 1+ | 80% | 3 | ✓ |
| Festy Ebosele | fouls drawn | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| Festy Ebosele | fouls committed | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kwadwo Baah | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jacob Brown | fouls drawn | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Elijah Adebayo | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tom Dele-Bashiru | fouls drawn | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Vakoun Issouf Bayo | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jacob Brown | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 3 | ✓ |
| Daniel Jebbison | fouls drawn | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Carlton Morris | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ken Sema | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn · Fouls committed · Shots total
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 62% | 5 cards | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 57% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 55% | 3 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards · BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Watford 2–0 Luton Feb 2025
- Luton 2–0 Watford Apr 2023
- Watford 4–0 Luton Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Luton v Watford?
13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Luton v Watford?
The most confident call it got wrong was Vakoun Issouf Bayo at 76% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.