Middlesbrough v Coventry City
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Middlesbrough lost to Coventry City 2–4, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Kaine Kesler-Hayden for 1+ tackles (95%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Aidan Morris for 1+ tackles (95%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaine Kesler-Hayden | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Aidan Morris | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ellis Simms | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 6 | ✓ |
| Brandon Thomas-Asante | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| Morgan Whittaker | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 3 | ✓ |
| Victor Torp | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 0 | ✗ |
| Hayden Hackney | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 1 | ✓ |
| Riley McGree | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Sontje Hansen | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Aidan Morris | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Samuel Silvera | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jay DaSilva | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 4 | ✓ |
| Alan Browne | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Luke Ayling | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 61% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 54% | 6 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 48% | 0 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Coventry City 3–1 Middlesbrough Feb 2026
- Coventry City 2–0 Middlesbrough May 2025
- Middlesbrough 0–3 Coventry City Nov 2024
- Middlesbrough 1–3 Coventry City Jan 2024
- Coventry City 3–0 Middlesbrough Aug 2023
- Middlesbrough 0–1 Coventry City May 2023
- Coventry City 0–0 Middlesbrough May 2023
- Middlesbrough 1–1 Coventry City May 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Middlesbrough v Coventry City?
8 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Middlesbrough v Coventry City?
The most confident call it got wrong was Aidan Morris at 95% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.