Middlesbrough v Plymouth Argyle
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Middlesbrough beat Plymouth Argyle 2–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Morgan Whittaker for 1+ shots total (83%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Hayden Hackney for 1+ fouls committed (82%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Whittaker | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 3 | ✓ |
| Finn Azaz | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 7 | ✓ |
| Marcus Forss | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 3 | ✓ |
| Hayden Hackney | fouls committed | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Aidan Morris | fouls drawn | 1+ | 81% | 5 | ✓ |
| Mustapha Bundu | fouls committed | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ryan Hardie | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 7 | ✓ |
| Hayden Hackney | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tommy Conway | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 5 | ✓ |
| Darko Gyabi | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Hayden Hackney | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Samuel Iling Junior | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 3 | ✓ |
| Morgan Whittaker | fouls drawn | 1+ | 73% | 3 | ✓ |
| Kornél Szűcs | fouls committed | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls committed · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 57% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 48% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 25% | 3 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Plymouth Argyle 3–3 Middlesbrough Dec 2024
- Middlesbrough 0–2 Plymouth Argyle Feb 2024
- Plymouth Argyle 3–3 Middlesbrough Nov 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Middlesbrough v Plymouth Argyle?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Middlesbrough v Plymouth Argyle?
The most confident call it got wrong was Hayden Hackney at 82% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.