Norwich v Blackpool
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Norwich lost to Blackpool 0–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Teemu Pukki for 1+ shots total (84%, had 8). Its clearest miss: Shayne Lavery for 1+ fouls committed (79%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teemu Pukki | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 8 | ✓ |
| Christos Tzolis | shots total | 1+ | 81% | 2 | ✓ |
| Shayne Lavery | fouls committed | 1+ | 79% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jonathan Rowe | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 2 | ✓ |
| Marcelino Núñez | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 3 | ✓ |
| Charlie Patiño | fouls committed | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Marcelino Núñez | fouls committed | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Adam Idah | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jonathan Rowe | fouls committed | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Morgan Rogers | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Charlie Patiño | fouls drawn | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
| Onel Hernández | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Gabriel Sara | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 3 | ✓ |
| Callum Connolly | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls committed · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 27% | 1 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Blackpool 0–1 Norwich Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Norwich v Blackpool?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Norwich v Blackpool?
The most confident call it got wrong was Shayne Lavery at 79% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.