Norwich v Plymouth Argyle
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Norwich beat Plymouth Argyle 6–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Borja Sainz for 1+ shots total (95%, had 7). Its clearest miss: Anis Ben Slimane for 1+ tackles (86%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
14 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borja Sainz | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 7 | ✓ |
| Bali Mumba | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Adam Forshaw | tackles | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kenny McLean | tackles | 1+ | 89% | 4 | ✓ |
| Andre Gray | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ante Crnac | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 4 | ✓ |
| Frederick Issaka | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Matthew Sorinola | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ben Chrisene | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Anis Ben Slimane | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Matthew Sorinola | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Forson Amankwah | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Darko Gyabi | fouls drawn | 1+ | 81% | 3 | ✓ |
| Rami Al Hajj | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 61% | 7 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 54% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 32% | 1 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Plymouth Argyle 2–1 Norwich Apr 2025
- Norwich 2–1 Plymouth Argyle Mar 2024
- Plymouth Argyle 6–2 Norwich Sep 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Norwich v Plymouth Argyle?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Norwich v Plymouth Argyle?
The most confident call it got wrong was Anis Ben Slimane at 86% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.