Norwich v Rotherham United
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Norwich beat Rotherham United 5–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Tom Eaves for 1+ fouls committed (86%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Jordan Hugill for 1+ fouls committed (89%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
2 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record →
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Hugill | fouls committed | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tom Eaves | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Josh Sargent | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 5 | ✓ |
| Ashley Barnes | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tom Eaves | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jordan Hugill | fouls drawn | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Gabriel Sara | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 5 | ✓ |
| Sydney van Hooijdonk | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Marcelino Núñez | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 4 | ✓ |
| Hakeem Odofin | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Charlie Wyke | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 2 | ✓ |
| Sam Nombe | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Gabriel Sara | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Andy Rinomhota | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Shots total · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 51% | 5 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 46% | No | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 30% | 1 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Rotherham United 2–1 Norwich Sep 2023
- Norwich 0–0 Rotherham United Apr 2023
- Rotherham United 1–2 Norwich Nov 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Norwich v Rotherham United?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Norwich v Rotherham United?
The most confident call it got wrong was Jordan Hugill at 89% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.