Norwich v Sunderland
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Norwich drew with Sunderland 0–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Trai Hume for 1+ tackles (95%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Tom Watson for 1+ shots total (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trai Hume | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 4 | ✓ |
| Marcelino Núñez | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Enzo Le Fée | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jacob Wright | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 4 | ✓ |
| Tom Watson | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Borja Sainz | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Wilson Isidor | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Eliezer Mayenda | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Marcelino Núñez | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 3 | ✓ |
| Milan Aleksić | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Josh Sargent | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Dan Neil | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kenny McLean | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Borja Sainz | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 58% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 49% | 0 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 42% | 6 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Sunderland 2–1 Norwich Dec 2024
- Norwich 1–0 Sunderland Mar 2024
- Sunderland 3–1 Norwich Oct 2023
- Norwich 0–1 Sunderland Mar 2023
- Sunderland 0–1 Norwich Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Norwich v Sunderland?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Norwich v Sunderland?
The most confident call it got wrong was Tom Watson at 94% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.