Oxford United v Birmingham City
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Oxford United lost to Birmingham City 0–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Jay Stansfield for 1+ shots total (82%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Carlos Vicente for 1+ fouls drawn (86%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Vicente | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jay Stansfield | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Will Lankshear | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| August Priske | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Marvin Ducksch | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mark Harris | fouls committed | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Myles Peart-Harris | fouls drawn | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Patrick Roberts | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Przemysław Płacheta | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Stanley Mills | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Matt Phillips | fouls committed | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Will Lankshear | fouls drawn | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jay Stansfield | fouls committed | 1+ | 73% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ole Romeny | fouls drawn | 1+ | 71% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn · Shots total · Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 47% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 41% | 2 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 36% | 4 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Birmingham City 1–0 Oxford United Aug 2025
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Oxford United v Birmingham City?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Oxford United v Birmingham City?
The most confident call it got wrong was Carlos Vicente at 86% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.