Oxford United v Sheffield Wednesday
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Oxford United beat Sheffield Wednesday 4–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Brodie Spencer for 1+ tackles (95%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Tayo Adaramola for 1+ tackles (86%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brodie Spencer | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| William Grainger | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 4 | ✓ |
| Charlie McNeill | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 1 | ✓ |
| Aidomo Emakhu | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Stanley Mills | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 3 | ✓ |
| Will Vaulks | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 4 | ✓ |
| Tayo Adaramola | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Myles Peart-Harris | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Aidomo Emakhu | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Will Lankshear | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Yunus Konak | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Hidde ter Avest | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jamie Donley | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Sean Fusire | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 54% | 5 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 54% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 30% | 1 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Sheffield Wednesday 1–2 Oxford United Oct 2025
- Sheffield Wednesday 0–1 Oxford United Apr 2025
- Oxford United 1–3 Sheffield Wednesday Dec 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Oxford United v Sheffield Wednesday?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Oxford United v Sheffield Wednesday?
The most confident call it got wrong was Tayo Adaramola at 86% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.