Reading v Swansea City
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Reading beat Swansea City 2–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Mamadou Loum for 1+ fouls committed (81%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Armstrong Oko-Flex for 1+ fouls committed (77%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mamadou Loum | fouls committed | 1+ | 81% | 4 | ✓ |
| Joël Piroe | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 6 | ✓ |
| Armstrong Oko-Flex | fouls committed | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Yakou Méïté | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Liam Cullen | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Andy Carroll | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ryan Manning | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 4 | ✓ |
| Junior Hoilett | fouls committed | 1+ | 73% | 2 | ✓ |
| Oliver Cooper | fouls drawn | 1+ | 72% | 5 | ✓ |
| Armstrong Oko-Flex | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Yakou Méïté | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jamie Paterson | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Armstrong Oko-Flex | fouls drawn | 1+ | 71% | 0 | ✗ |
| Oliver Cooper | shots total | 1+ | 71% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Shots total · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 33% | 5 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Swansea City 3–2 Reading Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Reading v Swansea City?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Reading v Swansea City?
The most confident call it got wrong was Armstrong Oko-Flex at 77% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.