Rotherham United v Birmingham City
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Rotherham United drew with Birmingham City 0–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Jordan Hugill for 1+ fouls committed (86%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Juninho Bacuna for 1+ shots total (84%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Hugill | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Juninho Bacuna | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tyler Roberts | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jay Stansfield | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jordan Hugill | fouls drawn | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Keshi Anderson | fouls drawn | 1+ | 82% | 2 | ✓ |
| Tyler Roberts | fouls drawn | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Koji Miyoshi | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Andy Rinomhota | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Keshi Anderson | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Juninho Bacuna | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Arvin Appiah | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ethan Laird | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 5 | ✓ |
| Tyler Roberts | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Shots total · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 41% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 36% | 0 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 31% | 6 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Birmingham City 0–0 Rotherham United Dec 2023
- Birmingham City 2–0 Rotherham United Mar 2023
- Rotherham United 2–0 Birmingham City Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Rotherham United v Birmingham City?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Rotherham United v Birmingham City?
The most confident call it got wrong was Juninho Bacuna at 84% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.