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Championship · 24/25

Sheffield United v Luton

How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

Sheffield United2 – 0 Luton 5 Oct 2024
3/14
of the model's most-confident calls landed. Every one was published before kick-off and priced the same way as every other fixture. A single game is noise, not a verdict — the season-long record is on the track record.

Before Sheffield United beat Luton 2–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 3 landed — the strongest being Kieffer Moore for 1+ shots total (77%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Vinícius Souza for 1+ fouls committed (82%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.

Match officials
John Brooks refereed this match

12 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record →

See the full player stats boardBoth likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

PlayerMarketLineModel ActualResult
Vinícius Souza fouls committed 1+ 82% 0
Elijah Adebayo fouls committed 1+ 81% 0
Callum O'Hare fouls drawn 1+ 81% 0
Kieffer Moore shots total 1+ 77% 1
Cauley Woodrow shots total 1+ 75% 0
Gustavo Hamer shots total 1+ 75% 0
Rhian Brewster shots total 1+ 74% 1
Jacob Brown fouls drawn 1+ 74% 0
Gustavo Hamer fouls committed 1+ 74% 0
Kieffer Moore fouls committed 1+ 73% 0
Elijah Adebayo shots total 1+ 72% 0
Rhian Brewster fouls drawn 1+ 71% 2
Joe Taylor shots total 1+ 71% 0
Joe Taylor fouls committed 1+ 70% 0

How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Fouls drawn · Shots total

Team & match markets

MarketLineModel ActualResult
Match cards O4.5 64% 3 cards
BTTS Yes 37% No
Match goals O2.5 32% 2 goals

How these are modelled: Match cards · BTTS

Dig deeper

Past meetings

Frequently asked

How did the SharpXI model do on Sheffield United v Luton?

3 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.

What did the model get wrong on Sheffield United v Luton?

The most confident call it got wrong was Vinícius Souza at 82% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.

Are these probabilities hindsight?

No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.

Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?

No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.