Sheffield United v Luton
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Sheffield United beat Luton 2–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 3 landed — the strongest being Kieffer Moore for 1+ shots total (77%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Vinícius Souza for 1+ fouls committed (82%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
12 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record →
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinícius Souza | fouls committed | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Elijah Adebayo | fouls committed | 1+ | 81% | 0 | ✗ |
| Callum O'Hare | fouls drawn | 1+ | 81% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kieffer Moore | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Cauley Woodrow | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 0 | ✗ |
| Gustavo Hamer | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 0 | ✗ |
| Rhian Brewster | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jacob Brown | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Gustavo Hamer | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kieffer Moore | fouls committed | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Elijah Adebayo | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Rhian Brewster | fouls drawn | 1+ | 71% | 2 | ✓ |
| Joe Taylor | shots total | 1+ | 71% | 0 | ✗ |
| Joe Taylor | fouls committed | 1+ | 70% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Fouls drawn · Shots total
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 64% | 3 cards | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 37% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 32% | 2 goals | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match cards · BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Luton 0–1 Sheffield United Feb 2025
- Luton 1–3 Sheffield United Feb 2024
- Sheffield United 2–3 Luton Dec 2023
- Sheffield United 0–1 Luton Mar 2023
- Luton 1–1 Sheffield United Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Sheffield United v Luton?
3 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Sheffield United v Luton?
The most confident call it got wrong was Vinícius Souza at 82% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.