Southampton v Leeds
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Southampton beat Leeds 3–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Joël Piroe for 1+ shots total (84%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Che Adams for 1+ shots total (73%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
12 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record →
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joël Piroe | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Georginio Rutter | fouls committed | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Crysencio Summerville | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kyle Walker-Peters | fouls drawn | 1+ | 79% | 6 | ✓ |
| Crysencio Summerville | fouls committed | 1+ | 79% | 2 | ✓ |
| Daniel James | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Crysencio Summerville | fouls drawn | 1+ | 76% | 4 | ✓ |
| Georginio Rutter | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
| Che Adams | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Adam Armstrong | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 4 | ✓ |
| Ethan Ampadu | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Che Adams | shots total | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Carlos Alcaraz | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 2 | ✓ |
| Carlos Alcaraz | fouls committed | 1+ | 70% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls committed · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 78% | 5 cards | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 70% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 67% | Yes | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards · Match goals
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Leeds 0–1 Southampton May 2024
- Leeds 1–2 Southampton May 2024
- Leeds 1–0 Southampton Feb 2023
- Southampton 2–2 Leeds Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Southampton v Leeds?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Southampton v Leeds?
The most confident call it got wrong was Che Adams at 73% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.