Stoke City v Oxford United
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Stoke City beat Oxford United 2–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Aidomo Emakhu for 1+ fouls drawn (80%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Myles Peart-Harris for 1+ fouls drawn (77%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidomo Emakhu | fouls drawn | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Will Lankshear | fouls committed | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Myles Peart-Harris | fouls drawn | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jesurun Rak-Sakyi | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 3 | ✓ |
| Million Manhoef | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 3 | ✓ |
| Yunus Konak | fouls drawn | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Will Lankshear | fouls drawn | 1+ | 75% | 0 | ✗ |
| Stanley Mills | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Cameron Brannagan | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lamine Cissé | shots total | 1+ | 73% | 5 | ✓ |
| Aidomo Emakhu | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lamine Cissé | fouls drawn | 1+ | 71% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ole Romeny | fouls drawn | 1+ | 71% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lamine Cissé | fouls committed | 1+ | 71% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn · Fouls committed · Shots total
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 44% | 3 cards | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 43% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 37% | 3 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards · BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Oxford United 0–3 Stoke City Nov 2025
- Stoke City 0–0 Oxford United Jan 2025
- Oxford United 1–0 Stoke City Sep 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Stoke City v Oxford United?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Stoke City v Oxford United?
The most confident call it got wrong was Myles Peart-Harris at 77% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.