Sunderland v Sheffield Wednesday
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Sunderland beat Sheffield Wednesday 4–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Jack Clarke for 1+ fouls drawn (84%, had 5). Its clearest miss: Michael Smith for 1+ fouls committed (87%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Smith | fouls committed | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jack Clarke | fouls drawn | 1+ | 84% | 5 | ✓ |
| Jamal Lowe | fouls committed | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jobe Bellingham | fouls drawn | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Djeidi Gassama | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
| Djeidi Gassama | fouls drawn | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
| Eliezer Mayenda | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jack Clarke | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jamal Lowe | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Michael Smith | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Josh Windass | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Svante Ingelsson | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Dennis Cirkin | fouls drawn | 1+ | 75% | 0 | ✗ |
| Liam Palmer | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Fouls drawn · Shots total
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 50% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 45% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 42% | 3 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Sheffield Wednesday 1–2 Sunderland Feb 2025
- Sunderland 0–2 Sheffield Wednesday May 2024
- Sheffield Wednesday 0–3 Sunderland Sep 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Sunderland v Sheffield Wednesday?
8 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Sunderland v Sheffield Wednesday?
The most confident call it got wrong was Michael Smith at 87% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.