Sunderland v West Brom
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Sunderland drew with West Brom 0–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Jayson Molumby for 1+ fouls committed (75%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Karlan Grant for 1+ shots total (74%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayson Molumby | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 2 | ✓ |
| Karlan Grant | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Josh Maja | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mikey Johnston | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Callum Styles | fouls committed | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Wilson Isidor | shots total | 1+ | 73% | 2 | ✓ |
| Uroš Račić | fouls committed | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Eliezer Mayenda | shots total | 1+ | 71% | 0 | ✗ |
| Patrick Roberts | shots total | 1+ | 70% | 4 | ✓ |
| Lewis Dobbin | shots total | 1+ | 69% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tom Watson | shots total | 1+ | 69% | 3 | ✓ |
| Eliezer Mayenda | fouls committed | 1+ | 68% | 0 | ✗ |
| Chris Mepham | fouls committed | 1+ | 68% | 0 | ✗ |
| Alex Mowatt | fouls drawn | 1+ | 68% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Shots total · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 53% | 0 cards | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 45% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 38% | 0 goals | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match cards · BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- West Brom 0–1 Sunderland Apr 2025
- West Brom 0–1 Sunderland Apr 2024
- Sunderland 2–1 West Brom Dec 2023
- West Brom 1–2 Sunderland Apr 2023
- Sunderland 1–2 West Brom Dec 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Sunderland v West Brom?
8 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Sunderland v West Brom?
The most confident call it got wrong was Karlan Grant at 74% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.