Watford v Coventry City
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Watford lost to Coventry City 0–4, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Jeremy Ngakia for 1+ tackles (95%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Milan van Ewijk for 1+ tackles (86%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
A side with nothing left to play for changed more of its eleven last season — 71.7% of the previous starting XI retained against 75.9%, the same direction in every league measured. It does not move fouls or cards.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romain Esse | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jeremy Ngakia | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ellis Simms | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Brandon Thomas-Asante | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 4 | ✓ |
| Victor Torp | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Nestory Irankunda | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 6 | ✓ |
| Edoardo Bove | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Romain Esse | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Josh Eccles | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Edo Kayembe | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Milan van Ewijk | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kaine Kesler-Hayden | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Nampalys Mendy | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ephron Mason-Clark | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 61% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 60% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 55% | 3 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Coventry City 3–1 Watford Oct 2025
- Coventry City 2–1 Watford Jan 2025
- Watford 1–1 Coventry City Sep 2024
- Watford 1–2 Coventry City Mar 2024
- Coventry City 3–3 Watford Sep 2023
- Coventry City 2–2 Watford Apr 2023
- Watford 0–1 Coventry City Nov 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Watford v Coventry City?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Watford v Coventry City?
The most confident call it got wrong was Milan van Ewijk at 86% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.