Watford v Coventry City
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Watford lost to Coventry City 0–4, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Ellis Simms for 1+ shots total (86%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Josh Eccles for 1+ fouls drawn (84%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ellis Simms | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Josh Eccles | fouls drawn | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ephron Mason-Clark | fouls drawn | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Brandon Thomas-Asante | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 4 | ✓ |
| Victor Torp | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 2 | ✓ |
| Romain Esse | fouls drawn | 1+ | 79% | 2 | ✓ |
| Nestory Irankunda | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 6 | ✓ |
| Nestory Irankunda | fouls committed | 1+ | 78% | 3 | ✓ |
| Edoardo Bove | fouls committed | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Romain Esse | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
| Victor Torp | fouls drawn | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Nestory Irankunda | fouls drawn | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Edoardo Bove | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Josh Eccles | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 3 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls drawn · Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 55% | No | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 55% | 3 cards | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 51% | 4 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Coventry City 3–1 Watford Oct 2025
- Coventry City 2–1 Watford Jan 2025
- Watford 1–1 Coventry City Sep 2024
- Watford 1–2 Coventry City Mar 2024
- Coventry City 3–3 Watford Sep 2023
- Coventry City 2–2 Watford Apr 2023
- Watford 0–1 Coventry City Nov 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Watford v Coventry City?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Watford v Coventry City?
The most confident call it got wrong was Josh Eccles at 84% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.