Watford v Southampton
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Watford beat Southampton 2–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Edoardo Bove for 1+ tackles (95%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Mamadou Doumbia for 1+ shots total (89%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edoardo Bove | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Finn Azaz | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Cyle Larin | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 3 | ✓ |
| Cameron Bragg | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 4 | ✓ |
| Leo Scienza | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 2 | ✓ |
| Lewis Dobbin | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mamadou Doumbia | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Amin Nabizada | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jordan Zemura | tackles | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Michael Adu-Poku | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Edo Kayembe | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Martín Payero | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Divin Mubama | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Leo Scienza | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 4 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 63% | 9 cards | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 61% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 60% | 3 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Southampton 1–0 Watford Feb 2026
- Watford 2–2 Southampton Aug 2025
- Southampton 3–2 Watford Apr 2024
- Watford 1–1 Southampton Dec 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Watford v Southampton?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Watford v Southampton?
The most confident call it got wrong was Mamadou Doumbia at 89% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.