Watford v Stoke City
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Watford lost to Stoke City 1–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being George Hirst for 1+ shots total (91%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Rocco Vata for 1+ shots total (95%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rocco Vata | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 0 | ✗ |
| George Hirst | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Iker Bravo | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 0 | ✗ |
| Amin Nabizada | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mamadou Doumbia | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Maksym Talovierov | tackles | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Justin Devenny | tackles | 1+ | 89% | 3 | ✓ |
| Lamine Cissé | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 4 | ✓ |
| Luca Kjerrumgaard | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Stephy Mavididi | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Edo Kayembe | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Djibril Soumaré | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 4 | ✓ |
| Lamine Cissé | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jordan Zemura | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 60% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 54% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 47% | 4 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Stoke City 3–1 Watford Mar 2026
- Watford 1–0 Stoke City Dec 2025
- Stoke City 0–0 Watford Mar 2025
- Watford 3–0 Stoke City Aug 2024
- Watford 1–1 Stoke City Dec 2023
- Stoke City 1–0 Watford Aug 2023
- Watford 2–0 Stoke City May 2023
- Stoke City 0–4 Watford Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Watford v Stoke City?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Watford v Stoke City?
The most confident call it got wrong was Rocco Vata at 95% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.