Wigan Athletic v West Brom
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Wigan Athletic drew with West Brom 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Karlan Grant for 1+ shots total (77%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Grady Diangana for 1+ shots total (65%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karlan Grant | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jake Livermore | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Grady Diangana | fouls drawn | 1+ | 72% | 4 | ✓ |
| Josh Magennis | fouls committed | 1+ | 71% | 1 | ✓ |
| John Swift | shots total | 1+ | 70% | 2 | ✓ |
| James McClean | fouls committed | 1+ | 69% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jayson Molumby | fouls committed | 1+ | 68% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jed Wallace | shots total | 1+ | 68% | 2 | ✓ |
| Grady Diangana | fouls committed | 1+ | 66% | 1 | ✓ |
| Josh Magennis | shots total | 1+ | 66% | 1 | ✓ |
| Grady Diangana | shots total | 1+ | 65% | 0 | ✗ |
| Okay Yokuşlu | fouls committed | 1+ | 65% | 0 | ✗ |
| Okay Yokuşlu | shots total | 1+ | 64% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jake Livermore | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls committed · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 22% | 4 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- West Brom 1–0 Wigan Athletic Mar 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Wigan Athletic v West Brom?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Wigan Athletic v West Brom?
The most confident call it got wrong was Grady Diangana at 65% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.