Wrexham v Birmingham City
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Wrexham lost to Birmingham City 1–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Oliver Rathbone for 1+ tackles (95%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Nathan Broadhead for 1+ shots total (87%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
12 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Rathbone | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Demarai Gray | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kieffer Moore | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 4 | ✓ |
| Jay Stansfield | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Sam Smith | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Nathan Broadhead | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lewis O'Brien | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jacques Ekomié | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ben Whiteman | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| August Priske | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 3 | ✓ |
| Patrick Roberts | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Carlos Vicente | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kieffer Moore | fouls drawn | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lewis O'Brien | fouls drawn | 1+ | 81% | 3 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 54% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 46% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 21% | 3 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Birmingham City 2–0 Wrexham Apr 2026
- Wrexham 1–1 Birmingham City Oct 2025
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Wrexham v Birmingham City?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Wrexham v Birmingham City?
The most confident call it got wrong was Nathan Broadhead at 87% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.