La Liga · 23/24

Almería v Villarreal

How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

Almería1 – 2 Villarreal 21 Apr 2024

Model scoreboard. Of the model's 14 most-confident calls on this match, 11 landed. A single game is noise, not a verdict — but every call here was published by the same model, priced the same way. This is what an honest track record looks like.

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Gerard Moreno	shots total	1+	92%	0	✗
Alexander Sørloth	shots total	1+	92%	4	✓
Gonçalo Guedes	shots total	1+	92%	0	✗
Ilias Akhomach	shots total	1+	91%	3	✓
Léo Baptistão	shots total	1+	91%	3	✓
Adrián Embarba	shots total	1+	91%	1	✓
Alex Baena	shots total	1+	91%	2	✓
Choco Lozano	shots total	1+	91%	5	✓
Lucas Robertone	fouls drawn	1+	89%	2	✓
Alex Baena	fouls drawn	1+	88%	1	✓
Dani Parejo	fouls drawn	1+	88%	0	✗
Choco Lozano	fouls committed	1+	87%	1	✓
Ilias Akhomach	fouls committed	1+	83%	5	✓
Gonçalo Guedes	fouls drawn	1+	79%	1	✓

Team & match markets

Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Btts	Yes	66%	Yes	✓
Match goals	O2.5	64%	3 goals	✓
Match cards	O4.5	49%	7 cards	✓

Dig deeper

Almería & Villarreal player stats→ Almería players & stats→ Villarreal players & stats→ Shots on target model→ To be carded model→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works