La Liga · 23/24

Villarreal v Almería

How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

Villarreal2 – 1 Almería 17 Sep 2023

Model scoreboard. Of the model's 14 most-confident calls on this match, 10 landed. A single game is noise, not a verdict — but every call here was published by the same model, priced the same way. This is what an honest track record looks like.

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Gerard Moreno	shots total	1+	92%	3	✓
Alexander Sørloth	shots total	1+	92%	2	✓
Largie Ramazani	shots total	1+	92%	4	✓
Alex Baena	shots total	1+	92%	2	✓
Luis Javier Suárez	shots total	1+	91%	4	✓
Adrián Embarba	shots total	1+	91%	2	✓
Étienne Capoue	fouls drawn	1+	89%	1	✓
Lucas Robertone	fouls drawn	1+	89%	3	✓
Alex Baena	fouls drawn	1+	88%	1	✓
Largie Ramazani	fouls committed	1+	87%	0	✗
Adrián Embarba	fouls drawn	1+	86%	0	✗
Yéremy Pino	fouls committed	1+	83%	5	✓
Santi Comesaña	fouls committed	1+	83%	0	✗
Luis Javier Suárez	fouls committed	1+	83%	0	✗

Team & match markets

Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Match goals	O2.5	70%	3 goals	✓
Btts	Yes	64%	Yes	✓
Match cards	O4.5	58%	5 cards	✓

Dig deeper

Villarreal & Almería player stats→ Villarreal players & stats→ Almería players & stats→ Shots on target model→ To be carded model→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works