Cádiz v Rayo Vallecano
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Cádiz drew with Rayo Vallecano 0–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Sergio Camello for 1+ shots total (94%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Chris Ramos for 1+ shots total (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergio Camello | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Isi Palazón | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Darwin Machís | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jorge de Frutos | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Chris Ramos | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Isi Palazón | fouls drawn | 1+ | 93% | 1 | ✓ |
| Maximiliano Gómez | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Roger Martí | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| Óscar Trejo | fouls committed | 1+ | 90% | 4 | ✓ |
| Óscar Trejo | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Darwin Machís | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Rubén Sobrino | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Iván Alejo | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Gonzalo Escalante | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 5 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Fouls committed Tackles
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 72% | 12 cards | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 58% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 50% | 0 goals | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match cards BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Rayo Vallecano 1–1 Cádiz Mar 2024
- Cádiz 1–0 Rayo Vallecano Feb 2023
- Rayo Vallecano 5–1 Cádiz Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Cádiz v Rayo Vallecano?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Cádiz v Rayo Vallecano?
The most confident call it got wrong was Chris Ramos at 94% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the La Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.