Celta Vigo v Real Valladolid
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Celta Vigo beat Real Valladolid 3–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Iago Aspas for 1+ shots total (94%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Kike Pérez for 1+ fouls committed (90%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juanmi Latasa | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Iago Aspas | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Pablo Durán | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Borja Iglesias | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Anastasios Douvikas | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Anastasios Douvikas | fouls drawn | 1+ | 93% | 1 | ✓ |
| Raúl Moro | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kike Pérez | fouls committed | 1+ | 90% | 0 | ✗ |
| Juanmi Latasa | fouls committed | 1+ | 90% | 5 | ✓ |
| Iván Sánchez | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Juanmi Latasa | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kike Pérez | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lucas Rosa | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Fran Beltrán | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Fouls committed Tackles
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 61% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 58% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 31% | 9 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Real Valladolid 0–1 Celta Vigo Mar 2025
- Celta Vigo 3–0 Real Valladolid Feb 2023
- Real Valladolid 4–1 Celta Vigo Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Celta Vigo v Real Valladolid?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Celta Vigo v Real Valladolid?
The most confident call it got wrong was Kike Pérez at 90% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the La Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.