Rayo Vallecano v Las Palmas
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Rayo Vallecano lost to Las Palmas 1–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Isi Palazón for 1+ shots total (92%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Viti Rozada for 1+ tackles (87%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fábio Silva | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sergio Camello | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 4 | ✓ |
| Isi Palazón | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 4 | ✓ |
| Isi Palazón | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Óscar Valentín | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 3 | ✓ |
| Viti Rozada | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Óscar Valentín | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Javier Muñoz | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Gerard Gumbau | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Álex Muñoz | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 7 | ✓ |
| Dário Essugo | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Gerard Gumbau | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Fábio Silva | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Manuel Fuster | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 56% | 4 cards | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 48% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 48% | 4 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Las Palmas 0–1 Rayo Vallecano May 2025
- Rayo Vallecano 0–2 Las Palmas Jan 2024
- Las Palmas 0–1 Rayo Vallecano Oct 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Rayo Vallecano v Las Palmas?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Rayo Vallecano v Las Palmas?
The most confident call it got wrong was Viti Rozada at 87% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the La Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.