Auxerre v Stade Brestois
How the SharpXI model rated this Ligue 1 fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Auxerre beat Stade Brestois 2–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Bradley Locko for 1+ tackles (95%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Mama Baldé for 1+ shots total (95%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mama Baldé | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 0 | ✗ |
| Bradley Locko | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 4 | ✓ |
| Pathé Mboup | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Remy Labeau Lascary | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Hugo Magnetti | tackles | 1+ | 93% | 6 | ✓ |
| Pathé Mboup | fouls committed | 1+ | 90% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ludovic Ajorque | fouls committed | 1+ | 90% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kamory Doumbia | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kévin Danois | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 4 | ✓ |
| Ludovic Ajorque | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kamory Doumbia | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Danny Namaso | fouls committed | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Cameron Archer | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Giovani Versini | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 57% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 52% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 31% | 2 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Auxerre 3–0 Stade Brestois Mar 2026
- Stade Brestois 2–0 Auxerre Jan 2026
- Stade Brestois 2–2 Auxerre Feb 2025
- Auxerre 3–0 Stade Brestois Sep 2024
- Stade Brestois 1–0 Auxerre May 2023
- Auxerre 1–1 Stade Brestois Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Auxerre v Stade Brestois?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Auxerre v Stade Brestois?
The most confident call it got wrong was Mama Baldé at 95% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Ligue 1?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.