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Ligue 1 · 23/24

Clermont Foot v Paris Saint-Germain

How the SharpXI model rated this Ligue 1 fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

Clermont Foot0 – 0 Paris Saint-Germain 30 Sep 2023
14/14
of the model's most-confident calls landed. Every one was published before kick-off and priced the same way as every other fixture. A single game is noise, not a verdict — the season-long record is on the track record.

Before Clermont Foot drew with Paris Saint-Germain 0–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 14 landed — the strongest being Kylian Mbappé for 1+ shots total (87%, had 5). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.

Match officials
Marc Bollengier refereed this match 3.76cards/game 0.97×vs league 68games
Marc Bollengier's card record →
See the full player stats boardBoth likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

PlayerMarketLineModel ActualResult
Kylian Mbappé shots total 1+ 87% 5
Muhammed-Cham Saračević shots total 1+ 80% 1
Gonçalo Ramos shots total 1+ 78% 1
Ousmane Dembélé shots total 1+ 78% 4
Yohann Magnin fouls committed 1+ 78% 1
Achraf Hakimi fouls committed 1+ 77% 1
Randal Kolo Muani fouls committed 1+ 77% 5
Gonçalo Ramos fouls committed 1+ 76% 1
Bradley Barcola fouls committed 1+ 76% 1
Randal Kolo Muani shots total 1+ 75% 3
Alidu Seidu fouls drawn 1+ 74% 3
Warren Zaïre-Emery fouls committed 1+ 74% 1
Shamar Nicholson shots total 1+ 74% 4
Shamar Nicholson fouls committed 1+ 73% 1

How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls committed · Fouls drawn

Team & match markets

MarketLineModel ActualResult
BTTS Yes 62% No
Match goals O2.5 62% 0 goals
Match cards O4.5 14% 5 cards

How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards

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Past meetings

Frequently asked

How did the SharpXI model do on Clermont Foot v Paris Saint-Germain?

14 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.

What did the model get wrong on Clermont Foot v Paris Saint-Germain?

Every one of its confident calls landed this time — a single strong game, not a verdict. When the model does miss, those rows sit in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross; we never hide them.

Are these probabilities hindsight?

No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.

Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Ligue 1?

No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.