Montpellier v Olympique Lyonnais
How the SharpXI model rated this Ligue 1 fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Montpellier lost to Olympique Lyonnais 1–4, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Teji Savanier for 1+ fouls drawn (83%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Wahbi Khazri for 1+ fouls drawn (79%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teji Savanier | fouls drawn | 1+ | 83% | 3 | ✓ |
| Saël Kumbedi | fouls committed | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Georges Mikautadze | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Alexandre Lacazette | shots total | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tanguy Coulibaly | fouls committed | 1+ | 81% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ernest Nuamah | shots total | 1+ | 81% | 2 | ✓ |
| Khalil Fayad | fouls drawn | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Andy Delort | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Alexandre Lacazette | fouls committed | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Rabby Nzingoula | fouls committed | 1+ | 79% | 0 | ✗ |
| Wahbi Khazri | fouls drawn | 1+ | 79% | 0 | ✗ |
| Wahbi Khazri | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Rabby Nzingoula | fouls drawn | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Rayan Cherki | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn · Fouls committed · Shots total
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 65% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 65% | 5 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 49% | 4 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Olympique Lyonnais 1–0 Montpellier Jan 2025
- Montpellier 1–2 Olympique Lyonnais Feb 2024
- Olympique Lyonnais 1–4 Montpellier Aug 2023
- Olympique Lyonnais 5–4 Montpellier May 2023
- Montpellier 1–2 Olympique Lyonnais Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Montpellier v Olympique Lyonnais?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Montpellier v Olympique Lyonnais?
The most confident call it got wrong was Wahbi Khazri at 79% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Ligue 1?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.