Montpellier v Stade Rennais
How the SharpXI model rated this Ligue 1 fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Montpellier lost to Stade Rennais 0–4, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Arnaud Kalimuendo for 1+ shots total (95%, had 5). Its clearest miss: Jordan Ferri for 1+ tackles (88%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arnaud Kalimuendo | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 5 | ✓ |
| Khalil Fayad | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Seko Fofana | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Modibo Sagnan | tackles | 1+ | 93% | 1 | ✓ |
| Rabby Nzingoula | tackles | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Boubakar Kouyaté | tackles | 1+ | 93% | 1 | ✓ |
| Teji Savanier | fouls drawn | 1+ | 91% | 4 | ✓ |
| Jordan James | fouls committed | 1+ | 90% | 1 | ✓ |
| Théo Sainte-Luce | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Enzo Tchato Mbiayi | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jordan Ferri | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jérémy Jacquet | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Djaoui Cissé | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Wahbi Khazri | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 59% | 3 cards | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 56% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 53% | 4 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Stade Rennais 3–0 Montpellier Sep 2024
- Stade Rennais 2–1 Montpellier Feb 2024
- Montpellier 0–0 Stade Rennais Sep 2023
- Montpellier 1–0 Stade Rennais Apr 2023
- Stade Rennais 3–0 Montpellier Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Montpellier v Stade Rennais?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Montpellier v Stade Rennais?
The most confident call it got wrong was Jordan Ferri at 88% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Ligue 1?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.