Stade Rennais v Montpellier
How the SharpXI model rated this Ligue 1 fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Stade Rennais beat Montpellier 3–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Amine Gouiri for 1+ shots total (95%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Ludovic Blas for 1+ fouls committed (90%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ludovic Blas | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Amine Gouiri | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Arnaud Kalimuendo | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Arnaud Nordin | fouls drawn | 1+ | 91% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ludovic Blas | fouls committed | 1+ | 90% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lorenz Assignon | fouls committed | 1+ | 90% | 3 | ✓ |
| Teji Savanier | fouls drawn | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Rabby Nzingoula | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Khalil Fayad | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Modibo Sagnan | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Baptiste Santamaria | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Alidu Seidu | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Khalil Fayad | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ludovic Blas | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Fouls committed Tackles
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 59% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 59% | 4 cards | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 56% | No | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Montpellier 0–4 Stade Rennais Mar 2025
- Stade Rennais 2–1 Montpellier Feb 2024
- Montpellier 0–0 Stade Rennais Sep 2023
- Montpellier 1–0 Stade Rennais Apr 2023
- Stade Rennais 3–0 Montpellier Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Stade Rennais v Montpellier?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Stade Rennais v Montpellier?
The most confident call it got wrong was Ludovic Blas at 90% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Ligue 1?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.