Olympique de Marseille v Nantes
How the SharpXI model rated this Ligue 1 fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Olympique de Marseille lost to Nantes 0–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Mason Greenwood for 1+ shots total (95%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Johann Lepenant for 1+ tackles (93%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mason Greenwood | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Rémy Cabella | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Johann Lepenant | tackles | 1+ | 93% | 0 | ✗ |
| Fabien Centonze | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Junior Mwanga | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Francis Coquelin | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Matthis Abline | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Deiver Machado | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Bilal Nadir | fouls committed | 1+ | 87% | 3 | ✓ |
| Matthis Abline | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 5 | ✓ |
| Francis Coquelin | fouls committed | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Igor Paixão | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Rémy Cabella | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 62% | 2 goals | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 45% | No | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 31% | 6 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Nantes 3–0 Olympique de Marseille May 2026
- Olympique de Marseille 2–0 Nantes Mar 2025
- Nantes 1–2 Olympique de Marseille Nov 2024
- Olympique de Marseille 2–0 Nantes Mar 2024
- Nantes 1–1 Olympique de Marseille Sep 2023
- Nantes 0–2 Olympique de Marseille Feb 2023
- Olympique de Marseille 2–1 Nantes Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Olympique de Marseille v Nantes?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Olympique de Marseille v Nantes?
The most confident call it got wrong was Johann Lepenant at 93% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Ligue 1?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.