Toulouse v Olympique Lyonnais
How the SharpXI model rated this Ligue 1 fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Toulouse lost to Olympique Lyonnais 0–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Cristian Cásseres Jr. for 1+ tackles (93%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Rémi Himbert for 1+ shots total (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rémi Himbert | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Cristian Cásseres Jr. | tackles | 1+ | 93% | 3 | ✓ |
| Julian Vignolo | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 4 | ✓ |
| Corentin Tolisso | fouls drawn | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Malick Fofana | fouls drawn | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Santiago Hidalgo | fouls committed | 1+ | 90% | 1 | ✓ |
| Yann Gboho | fouls drawn | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Niklas Schmidt | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Santiago Hidalgo | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 3 | ✓ |
| Kaïl Boudache | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 6 | ✓ |
| Julien Duranville | fouls committed | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Julien Duranville | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Pavel Šulc | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Malick Fofana | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 54% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 49% | 2 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 47% | 3 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Toulouse 2–1 Olympique Lyonnais May 2026
- Olympique Lyonnais 1–2 Toulouse Oct 2025
- Olympique Lyonnais 0–0 Toulouse Jan 2025
- Toulouse 1–2 Olympique Lyonnais Sep 2024
- Toulouse 2–3 Olympique Lyonnais Mar 2024
- Olympique Lyonnais 3–0 Toulouse Dec 2023
- Toulouse 1–2 Olympique Lyonnais Apr 2023
- Olympique Lyonnais 1–1 Toulouse Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Toulouse v Olympique Lyonnais?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Toulouse v Olympique Lyonnais?
The most confident call it got wrong was Rémi Himbert at 94% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Ligue 1?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.