Premier League · 23/24

Arsenal v Luton

How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

Arsenal2 – 0 Luton 3 Apr 2024

Model scoreboard. Of the model's 14 most-confident calls on this match, 11 landed. A single game is noise, not a verdict — but every call here was published by the same model, priced the same way. This is what an honest track record looks like.

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Eddie Nketiah	shots total	1+	100%	1	✓
Leandro Trossard	shots total	1+	100%	2	✓
Reiss Nelson	shots total	1+	96%	1	✓
Kai Havertz	shots total	1+	93%	2	✓
Martin Ødegaard	shots total	1+	93%	3	✓
Emile Smith Rowe	shots total	1+	93%	2	✓
Declan Rice	shots total	1+	88%	0	✗
Tahith Chong	fouls drawn	1+	85%	0	✗
Eddie Nketiah	fouls drawn	1+	85%	2	✓
Eddie Nketiah	fouls committed	1+	83%	1	✓
Reiss Nelson	fouls drawn	1+	78%	1	✓
Carlton Morris	fouls drawn	1+	78%	1	✓
Kai Havertz	fouls committed	1+	78%	2	✓
Andros Townsend	shots total	1+	74%	0	✗

Team & match markets

Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Match goals	O2.5	69%	2 goals	✗
Btts	Yes	39%	No	✗
Match cards	O4.5	25%	2 cards	✗

Dig deeper

Arsenal & Luton player stats→ Arsenal players & stats→ Luton players & stats→ Shots on target model→ To be carded model→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

Luton 3–4 Arsenal Dec 2023

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works