Arsenal v Luton
How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Arsenal beat Luton 2–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Leandro Trossard for 1+ shots total (94%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Thomas Partey for 1+ tackles (91%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Nketiah | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Leandro Trossard | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Reiss Nelson | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Emile Smith Rowe | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kai Havertz | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Oleksandr Zinchenko | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Thomas Partey | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Issa Kaboré | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Tahith Chong | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 0 | ✗ |
| Martin Ødegaard | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 3 | ✓ |
| Declan Rice | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Eddie Nketiah | fouls drawn | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Declan Rice | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Eddie Nketiah | fouls committed | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 72% | 2 goals | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 42% | No | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 27% | 2 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Luton 3–4 Arsenal Dec 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Arsenal v Luton?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Arsenal v Luton?
The most confident call it got wrong was Thomas Partey at 91% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Premier League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.