Premier League · 23/24

Luton v Arsenal

How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

Luton3 – 4 Arsenal 5 Dec 2023

Model scoreboard. Of the model's 14 most-confident calls on this match, 11 landed. A single game is noise, not a verdict — but every call here was published by the same model, priced the same way. This is what an honest track record looks like.

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Gabriel Jesus	shots total	1+	100%	3	✓
Leandro Trossard	shots total	1+	97%	4	✓
Gabriel Martinelli	shots total	1+	95%	2	✓
Kai Havertz	shots total	1+	93%	5	✓
Bukayo Saka	shots total	1+	93%	3	✓
Martin Ødegaard	shots total	1+	93%	2	✓
Bukayo Saka	fouls drawn	1+	84%	3	✓
Gabriel Jesus	fouls drawn	1+	84%	1	✓
Tahith Chong	fouls drawn	1+	84%	0	✗
Jacob Brown	shots total	1+	80%	0	✗
Elijah Adebayo	shots total	1+	78%	1	✓
Declan Rice	shots total	1+	78%	3	✓
Carlton Morris	shots total	1+	77%	0	✗
Gabriel Jesus	fouls committed	1+	77%	1	✓

Team & match markets

Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Match goals	O2.5	60%	7 goals	✓
Btts	Yes	43%	Yes	✓
Match cards	O4.5	25%	3 cards	✗

Dig deeper

Luton & Arsenal player stats→ Luton players & stats→ Arsenal players & stats→ Shots on target model→ To be carded model→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

Arsenal 2–0 Luton Apr 2024

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works