Premier League · 25/26

Aston Villa v Burnley

How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

Aston Villa2 – 1 Burnley 5 Oct 2025

Model scoreboard. Of the model's 14 most-confident calls on this match, 7 landed. A single game is noise, not a verdict — but every call here was published by the same model, priced the same way. This is what an honest track record looks like.

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Donyell Malen	shots total	1+	100%	3	✓
Emiliano Buendía	shots total	1+	96%	0	✗
Ollie Watkins	shots total	1+	93%	2	✓
Jacob Bruun Larsen	shots total	1+	88%	0	✗
Loum Tchaouna	shots total	1+	88%	0	✗
John McGinn	fouls drawn	1+	85%	2	✓
Boubacar Kamara	fouls drawn	1+	84%	2	✓
Lesley Ugochukwu	fouls committed	1+	81%	0	✗
Jaidon Anthony	shots total	1+	79%	0	✗
John McGinn	shots total	1+	78%	1	✓
Evann Guessand	shots total	1+	78%	0	✗
Emiliano Buendía	fouls drawn	1+	78%	1	✓
Lyle Foster	shots total	1+	77%	0	✗
Emiliano Buendía	fouls committed	1+	76%	2	✓

Team & match markets

Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Match goals	O2.5	52%	3 goals	✓
Btts	Yes	52%	Yes	✓
Match cards	O4.5	29%	4 cards	✗

Dig deeper

Aston Villa & Burnley player stats→ Aston Villa players & stats→ Burnley players & stats→ Shots on target model→ To be carded model→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works