Aston Villa v Burnley
How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Aston Villa beat Burnley 2–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Donyell Malen for 1+ shots total (94%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Emiliano Buendía for 1+ shots total (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
6 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donyell Malen | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Emiliano Buendía | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Florentino Luís | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 5 | ✓ |
| Lesley Ugochukwu | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 3 | ✓ |
| Loum Tchaouna | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ollie Watkins | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Evann Guessand | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jaidon Anthony | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| John McGinn | fouls drawn | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Lesley Ugochukwu | fouls committed | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lyle Foster | fouls committed | 1+ | 84% | 3 | ✓ |
| Emiliano Buendía | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Quilindschy Hartman | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Boubacar Kamara | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 56% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 51% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 30% | 4 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Burnley 2–2 Aston Villa May 2026
- Aston Villa 3–2 Burnley Dec 2023
- Burnley 1–3 Aston Villa Aug 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Aston Villa v Burnley?
8 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Aston Villa v Burnley?
The most confident call it got wrong was Emiliano Buendía at 94% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Premier League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.