Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest
How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Aston Villa lost to Nottingham Forest 1–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Ibrahim Mbaye for 1+ shots total (94%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Nicolas Jackson for 1+ shots total (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Jackson | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ibrahim Mbaye | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Johan Manzambi | fouls drawn | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| Daniel Muñoz | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 4 | ✓ |
| Neco Williams | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Xaver Schlager | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 6 | ✓ |
| Dan Ndoye | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 1 | ✓ |
| Johan Manzambi | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Emiliano Buendía | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Alysson | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Morgan Gibbs-White | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Tammy Abraham | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Liam Delap | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 6 | ✓ |
| Ross Barkley | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 52% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 48% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 24% | 7 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Aston Villa 4–0 Nottingham Forest May 2026
- Nottingham Forest 1–0 Aston Villa Apr 2026
- Nottingham Forest 1–1 Aston Villa Apr 2026
- Aston Villa 3–1 Nottingham Forest Jan 2026
- Aston Villa 2–1 Nottingham Forest Apr 2025
- Nottingham Forest 2–1 Aston Villa Dec 2024
- Aston Villa 4–2 Nottingham Forest Feb 2024
- Nottingham Forest 2–0 Aston Villa Nov 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest?
The most confident call it got wrong was Nicolas Jackson at 94% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Premier League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.