Brighton v Arsenal
How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Brighton beat Arsenal 3–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Bukayo Saka for 1+ shots total (94%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Mikel Merino for 1+ shots total (89%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bukayo Saka | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Bukayo Saka | fouls drawn | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Bruno Guimarães | fouls drawn | 1+ | 92% | 4 | ✓ |
| Martín Zubimendi | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Diego Gómez | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 5 | ✓ |
| Mikel Merino | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Charalampos Kostoulas | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 4 | ✓ |
| Kai Havertz | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Christos Tzolis | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jurriën Timber | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Bruno Guimarães | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mikel Merino | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mikel Merino | fouls committed | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Declan Rice | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 50% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 46% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 30% | 5 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Brighton 0–1 Arsenal Mar 2026
- Arsenal 2–1 Brighton Dec 2025
- Arsenal 2–0 Brighton Oct 2025
- Brighton 1–1 Arsenal Jan 2025
- Arsenal 1–1 Brighton Aug 2024
- Brighton 0–3 Arsenal Apr 2024
- Arsenal 2–0 Brighton Dec 2023
- Arsenal 0–3 Brighton May 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Brighton v Arsenal?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Brighton v Arsenal?
The most confident call it got wrong was Mikel Merino at 89% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Premier League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.